Monday, January 7, 2008

New Hampshire Primary Predictions


1. Barack Obama. Obama is surging across the country thanks to his resounding victory in Iowa. The continued support of independents (who overwhelmingly supported him in Iowa) will put him clearly over the top.

2. Hillary Clinton. Clinton still has significant strength in New Hampshire, and the Edwards populist method does not have nearly as much traction here as it did in Iowa.

3. John Edwards. Edwards has enough loyal supports to finish ahead of Bill Richardson.

4. Bill Richardon. Richardson is far more qualified to be president than Gravel or Kucinich, and so will certainly finish ahead of them.

5. Dennis Kucinich. He can't lose to Gravel.

6. Mike Gravel. No one left to lose to.


1. John McCain. McCain won New Hampshire in 2000, and independents left over who aren't voting for Obama will put him over the top (thanks in part to an endorsement from Joe Lieberman, everyone's 2nd favorite independent, after Mike Bloomberg).

2. Mitt Romney. Unlike in Iowa, there aren't nearly enough evangelicals in New Hampshire to cause Romney to lose to Huckabee again. Romney's New England patrician background will help him finish a strong second.

3. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has established himself enough as a real contender in this race to finish a solid third.

4. Ron Paul. Fourth place will be very close, but there are enough libertarians in New Hampshire to give it to Paul (and few enough authoritarians to keep it from Giuliani).

5. Rudy Giuliani. Nevertheless, Giuliani has too large a national following to finish below 5th.

6. Fred Thompson. Thompson isn't going to lose to Hunter or Keyes.

7. Duncan Hunter. He's not going to beat anyone else, but won't lose to Keyes (see Kucinich above.)

8. Alan Keyes. Keyes isn't beating any major candidate. (See Gravel above.)

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