Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Iowa caucus predictions

Most polls show the Iowa caucus too close to call in both the Democratic and Republican races. Nevertheless, here are predictions for the caucus:


1. Barack Obama. The combination of same day registration (allowing the campaign to bring new voters to register and caucus at the same time), and the Kucinich campaign throwing its 2nd place votes behind Obama will put Obama over the top.

2. John Edwards. The Edwards '08 incarnation has staked out ground on the economic left of Obama and Clinton, that resonates in Iowa, and that combined with 2nd place votes from Biden and Dodd supporters should put him comfortably at second.

3. Hillary Clinton. There really is no way that Clinton can finish below 3rd place, and given the more compelling reasons for Obama and Edwards puts Clinton in 3rd place by default.

4. Bill Richardson. Richardson brings more to the table than Dodd or Biden (despite their even longer national service records), which should give him the edge over either of them.

5. Joe Biden. The continued turmoil in Pakistan (which Biden has been talking about for months) should give him the edge over Dodd.

6. Chris Dodd. He can't loses to Kucinich, so Dodd is here by default. It is either the strength of the Democratic field, or the critical overlooking of a dedicated and capable public servant that has put Dodd down here.

7. Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich can't beat Dodd, and can't lose to Gravel, which puts him here.

8. Mike Gravel. Gravel isn't beating any major candidate.


1. Mike Huckabee. The combination of Mike Huckabee's genuine evangelical credentials, and his authenticity will give him the win tomorrow night.

2. Mitt Romney. Romney's organization is so good that there's no way he'll finish below 2nd.

3. John McCain. McCain continues to surge as Republican voters realize he may really be the best person to lead this country in 2009. If had put more emphasis on Iowa, he may have even finished hirer.

4. Fred Thompson. Thompson has spent a significant amount of time in Iowa, and despite his overall lackluster campaign, he will likely still edge Giuliani, who isn't even spending this week in Iowa.

5. Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani has too large a national following and fit the security president niche too well to finish below 5th.

6. Ron Paul. While Paul has raised an enormous amount of money recently, he still lags in national and Iowa polls. Paul will do better here in libertarian-friendly New Hampshire, but will likely not break the top 5 in Iowa.

7. Duncan Hunter. He's not going to beat anyone else, but won't lose to Keyes (see Kucinich above.)

8. Alan Keyes. Keyes isn't beating any major candidate. (See Gravel above.)

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