Monday, January 14, 2008

Michigan Primary Predictions


1. John McCain - Since the Democratic National Committee has stripped the Michigan delegation of all of its delegates to the national committee, independents and even some Democrats will vote in the open Republican primary. Aside from Daily Kos' acolytes who will vote for Romney in the hope of continuing the chaos of the Republican presidential race, most of them will vote for McCain, giving him the win.

2. Mitt Romney - Romney was raised in Michigan, where his father was governor. The combination of Romney's roots and his ad buys will give him a strong second.

3. Mike Huckabee - Huckabee is still evangelical Christians' top choice, as well as any populists remaining in the Republican party. He'll finish significantly behind Romney, but still a solid third.

4. Ron Paul - There are enough Libertarians in Michigan to give Ron Paul a close fourth (over Giuliani), and enough of Giuliani's one-time supporters who favored his security credentials have shifted to McCain, allowed Paul to edge Giuliani.

5. Rudy Giuliani - Giuliani has focused everything on Florida, and so will finish 5th in this race.

6. Fred Thompson - Despite his third place finish in Iowa, Thompson's campaign has no traction what so ever in Michigan.

7. Duncan Hunter - Is he even still in this race?

8. Alan Keyes - See Hunter above.


1. Hillary Clinton - Clinton has enough supporters who were turn out to vote for her to give her the nearly meaningless 0-delegate win.

2. Uncommitted - This is surrogate for Barack Obama and John Edwards, who do not appear on the ballot.

3. Dennis Kucinich - There are still enough Kucinich supporters in Michigan for him to get a few votes. Especially since his actually campaigning in the state.

4. Mike Gravel - Gravel is still on the ballot, and so may receive a vote or two.

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