Friday, January 18, 2008

Nevada Caucus Predictions


1. Barack Obama. Despite Clinton being up in most polls, Obama will win for three reasons: The major Nevada unions have endorsed him, the Nevada Supreme Court ruled that they can caucus at the casinos where they work, and the fact that a caucus is public voting, so the workers will likely feel pressured to go along with their bosses. Elements of caucuses may fly in the face of democracy, but they will also help Obama win.

2. Hillary Clinton. Clinton has far too much support in Nevada to lose to Edwards.

3. John Edwards. The only other major candidate has to finish ahead of the rest of the pack.

4. Dennis Kucinich.

5. Mike Gravel.


1. Mitt Romney. Romney is hot off of his victory in Michigan as a businessman. Nevada's casino-sponsored state loves a bussiness man, plus the large population of Mormons, and comparatively fewer evangelicals will give Romney another win.

2. John McCain. McCain still has a national presence and so will do well in Nevada.

3. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has failed to deliver so far in states without lots of evangelicals.

4. Fred Thompson. Thompson has begun to catch a bit, though not a lot, of fire from the recent Republican debate.

5. Rudy Giuliani. Nevada leans more authoritarian and less libertarian, putting Giuliani ahead of Paul.

6. Ron Paul.

7. Duncan Hunter.

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