Monday, May 5, 2008

Primary Predictions: 5/6

Indiana: Clinton, by less than 10%
North Carolina: Obama, by more than 10%

The engame is now set. There is no way that the Clinton campaign can catch up in delegates (assuming that even if Michigan delegates were alloted that Obama would get some proportional to the "uncommitted" vote). Her error was that she disregarded smaller, less populous states in February and March, such that Obama was able to wrack up giagantic margins and take a lead in delegates (since we've all seen from the past few primaries that winning a large primary by 10% doesn't really help a candidates margin much).

That said, Obama will not get a majority of the delegates without a significant surge of superdelegates. It is looking more and more likely that this will only happen if Clinton concedes.

So, one more month of Clinton trench fighting until the calls for her to drop out grow to a deafening roar. At which point she has two options: drop out and let Barack be the nominee, or bloody him further that the party turns to an even bigger Clinton family enemy: Al Gore.

It's your call Hillary.

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