Democratic VP Prediction

Senator Barack Obama's VP pick will be Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.

Bayh is (in no particular order);

• Young
• From a red state
• An experienced executive (as governor of Indiana)
• A foreign policy wonk on the hill for almost a decade
• An early and fervent Clinton supporter

Way back in the fall of 2006, Bayh had some of the most sensible rhetoric on Iraq. Furthermore, there's nothing like an Obama/Bayh ticket to make McCain look old and out of date. Bayh is the best possible mix of youth, bipartisanship, change, and experience (both executive and foreign policy) that Obama needs. It's time to put him on the ticket.

Fannie and Freddie

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced on Sunday that it would guarantee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored public home mortgage purchasers. (Read Paul Krugman on it here.)

This is a smart move on Paulson's part for the following reason: the mortgages, for the most part, are money good. Fannie and Freddie do not have any subprime mortgages, by definition. Despite the fact that the ABX AAA (a rough measure of the probability of default of mortgage backed securities of that rating) is trading a 50, it's extremely unlikely that 50% of those mortgages will default. Therefore, while Fannie and Freddie may need some injection of government capital (raising valid questions about the bizarre mix of capitalism and socialism that govern the two organizations), they are not likely to lead massive government bailouts.

The timing of this announcement is interesting as well. Conventional wisdom is that the rate cuts of the past year will take about 12-18 months to take effect. This means that the equity markets will likely turn the corner within the next year. Paulson's actions are therefore a stop gap measure to boost confidence at a time when the equity markets are bearish, until they begin to recover.

Excellent dessert bar

ChikaLicious is to dessert what Una Pizza is to pizza: a chance to enjoy the highest quality of a particular type of food (dessert in this case), and to share in the experience of its creation.

It is only open Thursday-Sunday, takes no reservations, and only serves dessert. Patrons can choose from one of seven desserts (from a daily changing menu), with each come with a first course (chamomile ice cream with blueberry paste), and a third course (petifores, chocolate truffles, and pistachio shortbread cookies). ChikaLicious also offers wine pairings for each dessert, ranging from port with the liquid chocolate tart to a fruity, fizzy wine with mint ice cream and strawberry sorbet (which comes with brown sugar cookies).

The best part, though, it that half restaurant are front-row seats to the dessert assembly process. Chika and her assistant assemble each dessert in perfect harmony, take the appropriate pieces from each oven, fridge, and freezer, and then alternating steps of the algorithm for that dessert. It was truly amazing to watch.

A final note - for those of us who do not eat animal gelatin, Chika was happy to accommodate.

Kosher Restaurants in Toronto: Gladstone's

Gladstone's is a good Kosher restaurant. The food is well prepared - try the special mushroom soup if they have it, the Sardina steak (pronounced with a long "i", as in "someone's in the kitchen with sar-DINA"), or the sweet potato fries.

However, as with many kosher restaurants, the service is something between lethargic and comically incompetent. No spilled food or massacred orders, just run of the mill largocity.

How to end suicide: Remove easy methods

Fascinating piece in yesterday's New York Times magazine about how to prevent suicide. The piece cites three data-based examples that lower suicide rates:

• Shifting British ovens from poisonous coal gas to less harmful natural gas
• High guard rails on the Golden Gate bridge
• Fewer guns in homes

The article argues that most suicides are impulsive, and removing easy methods gives individuals more time to think through their actions.

It's worth a read.

"Fair and Balanced" Photos

Unbelievable story about Fox News doctoring the photos of two New York Times reporters to make them appear more ominous

Bulldozer plows into crowded bus on Jaffa Street

A Palestinian deliberately drove a bulldozer in an Egged bus near the old Central Bus Station, with at least four dead and dozens wounded.

May G-d heal all those wounded in today's attack, and may G-d help the Israeli government decide on the appropriate response.