In a surprise move, NM Governor Bill Richardson has told his supporters to vote for IL Senator Barack Obama if they cannot vote for him. This is interesting because many pundits viewed Richardson as angling for the #2 spot with NY Senator Hillary Clinton, as Richardson served as UN Ambassador and Energy Secretary in Bill Clinton's cabinet, and Richardson has mostly refrained from criticizing Hillary Clinton.
Richardson has significant support in Iowa, and so his 2nd place votes may really put Obama over the top.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Iowa caucus predictions
Most polls show the Iowa caucus too close to call in both the Democratic and Republican races. Nevertheless, here are predictions for the caucus:
Democrats:
1. Barack Obama. The combination of same day registration (allowing the campaign to bring new voters to register and caucus at the same time), and the Kucinich campaign throwing its 2nd place votes behind Obama will put Obama over the top.
2. John Edwards. The Edwards '08 incarnation has staked out ground on the economic left of Obama and Clinton, that resonates in Iowa, and that combined with 2nd place votes from Biden and Dodd supporters should put him comfortably at second.
3. Hillary Clinton. There really is no way that Clinton can finish below 3rd place, and given the more compelling reasons for Obama and Edwards puts Clinton in 3rd place by default.
4. Bill Richardson. Richardson brings more to the table than Dodd or Biden (despite their even longer national service records), which should give him the edge over either of them.
5. Joe Biden. The continued turmoil in Pakistan (which Biden has been talking about for months) should give him the edge over Dodd.
6. Chris Dodd. He can't loses to Kucinich, so Dodd is here by default. It is either the strength of the Democratic field, or the critical overlooking of a dedicated and capable public servant that has put Dodd down here.
7. Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich can't beat Dodd, and can't lose to Gravel, which puts him here.
8. Mike Gravel. Gravel isn't beating any major candidate.
Republicans
1. Mike Huckabee. The combination of Mike Huckabee's genuine evangelical credentials, and his authenticity will give him the win tomorrow night.
2. Mitt Romney. Romney's organization is so good that there's no way he'll finish below 2nd.
3. John McCain. McCain continues to surge as Republican voters realize he may really be the best person to lead this country in 2009. If had put more emphasis on Iowa, he may have even finished hirer.
4. Fred Thompson. Thompson has spent a significant amount of time in Iowa, and despite his overall lackluster campaign, he will likely still edge Giuliani, who isn't even spending this week in Iowa.
5. Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani has too large a national following and fit the security president niche too well to finish below 5th.
6. Ron Paul. While Paul has raised an enormous amount of money recently, he still lags in national and Iowa polls. Paul will do better here in libertarian-friendly New Hampshire, but will likely not break the top 5 in Iowa.
7. Duncan Hunter. He's not going to beat anyone else, but won't lose to Keyes (see Kucinich above.)
8. Alan Keyes. Keyes isn't beating any major candidate. (See Gravel above.)
Democrats:
1. Barack Obama. The combination of same day registration (allowing the campaign to bring new voters to register and caucus at the same time), and the Kucinich campaign throwing its 2nd place votes behind Obama will put Obama over the top.
2. John Edwards. The Edwards '08 incarnation has staked out ground on the economic left of Obama and Clinton, that resonates in Iowa, and that combined with 2nd place votes from Biden and Dodd supporters should put him comfortably at second.
3. Hillary Clinton. There really is no way that Clinton can finish below 3rd place, and given the more compelling reasons for Obama and Edwards puts Clinton in 3rd place by default.
4. Bill Richardson. Richardson brings more to the table than Dodd or Biden (despite their even longer national service records), which should give him the edge over either of them.
5. Joe Biden. The continued turmoil in Pakistan (which Biden has been talking about for months) should give him the edge over Dodd.
6. Chris Dodd. He can't loses to Kucinich, so Dodd is here by default. It is either the strength of the Democratic field, or the critical overlooking of a dedicated and capable public servant that has put Dodd down here.
7. Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich can't beat Dodd, and can't lose to Gravel, which puts him here.
8. Mike Gravel. Gravel isn't beating any major candidate.
Republicans
1. Mike Huckabee. The combination of Mike Huckabee's genuine evangelical credentials, and his authenticity will give him the win tomorrow night.
2. Mitt Romney. Romney's organization is so good that there's no way he'll finish below 2nd.
3. John McCain. McCain continues to surge as Republican voters realize he may really be the best person to lead this country in 2009. If had put more emphasis on Iowa, he may have even finished hirer.
4. Fred Thompson. Thompson has spent a significant amount of time in Iowa, and despite his overall lackluster campaign, he will likely still edge Giuliani, who isn't even spending this week in Iowa.
5. Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani has too large a national following and fit the security president niche too well to finish below 5th.
6. Ron Paul. While Paul has raised an enormous amount of money recently, he still lags in national and Iowa polls. Paul will do better here in libertarian-friendly New Hampshire, but will likely not break the top 5 in Iowa.
7. Duncan Hunter. He's not going to beat anyone else, but won't lose to Keyes (see Kucinich above.)
8. Alan Keyes. Keyes isn't beating any major candidate. (See Gravel above.)
Bhutto: A British spoiled brat?
Conservative Canadian columnist David Warren lambasts Bhutto as far from a "woman of the people" in Pakistan.
Improv comes to late night television
Tonight marks the return of broadcast late night television. Both Jay Leno and David Letterman will begin broadcasting new episodes this evening, though with drastically different situations. David Letterman brokered a separate agreement with the writers guild, and so his writers are now officially off-strike. This will enable A-list stars to appear on his show, without having to cross picket lines. Tonight's guest, Robin Williams, will certainly be as exciting and hilarious as he always is.
That said, Leno is in a far more interesting situation. He is returning to the air without his trusty team of writers. Furthermore, since Leno himself is technically a member of the striking union, he can't even write for himself without scabbing. This will certainly make for an exciting show, as Leno effectively will have to improvise his monologue. In addition, while he may not be as funny as Robin Williams, Leno's guest, former AK Governor Mike Huckabee should make for a fascinating show, especially on the eve of the Iowa caucus that Huckabee may win.
UPDATE: It appears that Hillary Clinton may be a surprise guest on Letterman's show tonight.
That said, Leno is in a far more interesting situation. He is returning to the air without his trusty team of writers. Furthermore, since Leno himself is technically a member of the striking union, he can't even write for himself without scabbing. This will certainly make for an exciting show, as Leno effectively will have to improvise his monologue. In addition, while he may not be as funny as Robin Williams, Leno's guest, former AK Governor Mike Huckabee should make for a fascinating show, especially on the eve of the Iowa caucus that Huckabee may win.
UPDATE: It appears that Hillary Clinton may be a surprise guest on Letterman's show tonight.
Cooking with fire
Today's New York Times has a must-read piece on heat's fundamental role in cooking.
L.A. Times to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari: Resign
The L.A. Times has an open letter to Benazir Bhutto's 19 year old son, asking him to resign from his newly appointed post as chair (King) of his late mother's political party.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Orthodoxy and Conversion in Judaism
Rabbi Yitz and Blu Greenberg have an excellent post in Forward magazine about how ultra-Orthodox opinions on conversation are both out of sync with Jewish law and tradition, and are tearing about the international Jewish community.
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